Statistics Question

By Shamus Posted Sunday Oct 30, 2011

Filed under: Pictures 171 comments

Here is a fun little question I found, via Flowing Data.

random_answer.jpg

Now, this is very clever, although I really wish the answer for C) was 0% instead of 60%. See, if that was the case then it would make a nice circular puzzle:

  1. The chance of randomly choosing the correct answer out of four is 25%.
  2. Clearly the correct answer is 25%.
  3. But, 25% appears twice in this list meaning the odds to randomly choose the correct answer of 25% is actually… 50%?
  4. Okay, so 50% is the answer. But I only have a 25% chance of selecting that one.
  5. I see. So this is actually a paradox, and the odds of selecting the correct answer is really 0%.
  6. But… 0% is one of the options in the list. Which means I have a 25% chance of choosing it!
  7. GOTO 2

I’m not sure what the 60% is. Maybe it’s just a random wrong answer, but I can’t escape the notion that maybe 60% has some meaning that’s going over my head. Is there some application of statistics where (through averaging or some such shenanigans) you could end up with an answer of 60%?

In any case, I got a laugh out of it.

EDIT: Comments were inexplicably disabled for this post. This has been remedied.

 


 

Spoiler Warning Half Life 2 Special EP12: Post-Grad Commando

By Josh Posted Saturday Oct 29, 2011

Filed under: Spoiler Warning 84 comments


Link (YouTube)

And you only thought there were three episodes this week! In reality, I just flubbed my upload of the first one on tuesday. It’s actually pretty easy to forget that I’m on the wrong account when I go to upload an episode, and in this case I tried to upload episode nine onto my own ancient youtube account. Didn’t even realize my mistake until I got up for my night shift hours later.

The perils of an amateur, scatterbrained video editor I guess.

 


 

Spoiler Warning Half Life 2 Special EP11: The Bug Whisperer

By Shamus Posted Friday Oct 28, 2011

Filed under: Spoiler Warning 116 comments


Link (YouTube)

The management would like to apologize for the puns in this episode. However, management is precluded from doing so by the fact that the management is not in the least bit sorry.

Thank you for your patronage,
The Spoiler Warning Team

 


 

Autoblography Part 36: Big Iron

By Shamus Posted Friday Oct 28, 2011

Filed under: Personal 158 comments

One day I visit the college to pick up Heather for a date. She’s in the library, finishing up writing some paper for class. She’s using a program called Netscape to do… something. I’m not sure what this thing is for. I only see a glimpse of it before we leave. I gather that the college has an internet – whatever that is. She describes the paper and her brutal workload at school, but my mind is busy asking what this Netscape thing is and what it’s for.

It’s 1994, and I’ve landed a job at a medium-sized company. They’re willing to hire me, despite my lack of a degree and experience. I begin working nights. I’m charged with running and delivering the nightly reports, and making backups. I spend most of the shift sitting around, waiting for the computer to finish the next thing. With a faster computer, I could do all of my work in about three hours. This is not taxing or cerebral work, but it is solid work experience and a chance to prove myself.

Continue reading ⟩⟩ “Autoblography Part 36: Big Iron”

 


 

Spoiler Warning Half Life 2 Special EP10: How Not to Play Half Life 2

By Shamus Posted Thursday Oct 27, 2011

Filed under: Spoiler Warning 82 comments

May I present the next episode of our sickening, overly-sweet love letter to Gabe Newell:


Link (YouTube)

What WAS that guy gonna do with Lazlo, anyway? I really want to know.

 


 

Autoblography Part 35: The Rut

By Shamus Posted Thursday Oct 27, 2011

Filed under: Personal 236 comments

In late 1993, the videogame Doom is released. It’s a sensation. Naturally I’m obsessed with it, just like most game-playing guys my age are. But I’m also obsessed with the game from a technological standpoint. This game has completely revolutionized my thinking regarding what is possible on modern computers. The game has texture mapped walls, light and dark areas, and elevation changes. This is such a monumental leap ahead of what existing games can do that it’s staggering. I look at the programs I’ve written so far and I feel sort of ashamed. Somewhere out there, this is happening. People are inventing this stuff without me. I need to buckle down. I need to learn faster. Or learn more. Or something different. At the rate I’m going, I’m never going to catch up.

It’s not that I want to make videogames (although that sounds like it would be fun) it’s that I want to understand. I want to know how it works. I want to see what else these machines can do.

I learn everything I can about the engine that drives this game. Eventually I get my hands on the level editor and begin making my own maps. This process will pay off for me later in a big way.

Working Taco Bell is murder today. The weather is gorgeous, a new outlet has opened in the plaza, and we are woefully, humiliatingly understaffed. I’m taking a few orders at a time at the front register, then dashing to the back to wash my hands and help prepare tacos, then assembling the orders, and then running back to the register to take more orders. This is horribly inefficient and exhausting, but it’s better than standing in front of the customers drumming my fingers while order times creep towards half an hour.

I stammer halfway through my robotic greeting as I look up at the next customer. It’s Neighbor John! I haven’t seen him since I was still a kid. He’s looking much the same as ever. Perhaps his massive beard is a bit more grey, and perhaps the lines on his face are a little easier to see, but he’s still the same gentle and polite man I remember from my childhood.

Continue reading ⟩⟩ “Autoblography Part 35: The Rut”

 


 

Spoiler Warning Half Life 2 Episode 9: Highway 17, Abridged

By Shamus Posted Wednesday Oct 26, 2011

Filed under: Spoiler Warning 100 comments


Link (YouTube)

We’re back to our journey through Half-Life 2.

Once again I would like to stress how willing I am to pay for a “remastered” version of this game that removes the loading screens. Throw in some high-def textures and a scene where Greedo shoots first, and boom! Instant cash. Valve, I’m expressing my willingness to have my nostalgia exploited for your material gain. Think it over, ok?

I’d be curious to see how this sequence would look if we could actually see from one end of the bridge to the other. I’m sure the fog is there for polygon control, which is no longer an issue now that we’re living in the future. Having said that, it’s possible that being able to see from one end to the other would make it less mysterious. There’s something haunting about being adrift in that fog. Removing the fog might make the bridge seem even more massive and imposing, but it might also make it more boring.