I said in this episode that I played through the game 1.5 times. Now that I’m thinking back, I actually played through the first few missions, started over and played all the way through, and then played through again to the halfway point. The point being, I played through this section of the game three times and never noticed the Pendleton brothers moving around.
So between the four of us we played through this section no less than seven times, and we never had an instance where one of the brothers wasn’t in the steam room. According to the wiki:
Morgan Pendleton will always be in either the Smoking Room or the Steam Room. Custis Pendleton will always be in either the Gold Room or the Ivory Room.
It sounds like there’s a 1:2 chance of Morgan being in the steam room. So the odds of me playing the mission three times and always having him there are 1:8. The odds of it happening to all of us is 1:128. Of course, maybe Morgan did appear in the smoking room on some of our play-throughs and we just forgot. This is the downside of our format: It’s sometimes months between playing the game and discussing it.
I am now going to make a prediction: I predict that the comments are going to become hopelessly sidetracked in probability theory. Either because someone misunderstands it or because I flubbed it above. (Shamus! You said “chance” when you should have used the word “odds”, which is distinct from “probability” and now we have to haggle over whether the position of Custis needs to be counted in our chart of possible outcomes!)
Mark my words. This always happens. But that’s okay. Probability conversations often get lost in the weeds, but they’re usually smart and interesting and polite. Unlike some topics I won’t mention.
My favorite part was when Josh decided to double back over the entire level to get one lousy bone charm, then we steered him wrong by sending him back to the Golden Cat, then he died in a pointless fight with a bunch of respawned guards. Good times.
Most importantly: The Golden Cat is an amazing piece of environment design. Varied, lush, colorful interior, richly detailed and having multiple routes through. I’d love to know what photographs or buildings they used for inspiration.
Even allegedly smart people can make life-changing blunders that seem very, very obvious in retrospect.
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